OddSenseOddSense

How OddSense works

What the numbers mean, and what they don’t
01

The short version

OddSense compares the prices bookmakers offer with a fair value for the same outcome, and shows the gap. It is not a bookmaker, it holds no money, and it never predicts who will win.

1
Take the prices

For each outcome we collect the prices of several bookmakers and keep the best one.

2
Work out fair value

We remove each bookmaker’s margin and average what is left. That consensus is the fair value.

3
Show the gap

The gap between the best price and fair value is the edge. Positive means the price pays more than fair value.

Best price2.60
Fair probability40%
Edge+4.0%
02

Reading a price row

Every market on a game page is a table of rows like this one. Each number answers a different question.

1
2
3
4
5
6
Selection
Best price
Fair
Implied
Edge
Agreement
Over 2.5
2.60
40.0%
38.5%
+4.0%
92
High agreement
Add
1
Best price

The highest decimal price among the bookmakers we compare, with its bookmaker underneath. A price of 2.60 returns 2.60 for each 1 staked, stake included.

2
Fair

The market’s consensus probability for this outcome, with bookmaker margins removed. Not a forecast: it is what the bookmakers together imply.

3
Implied

One divided by the price: the probability the price itself suggests. It still contains the bookmaker’s margin.

4
Edge

How much the price pays compared with fair value. Positive pays more, negative pays less.

5
Agreement

How far to trust the fair value: how many bookmakers quote this market and how closely they line up.

6
Add

Adds the price to your slip, to record the bet you place with a bookmaker. OddSense does not place bets.

03

How edge works

Edge compares a price with fair value. It never says what will happen.

Edge = best price × fair probability − 1
1
Prices to probabilities

Each bookmaker’s prices become probabilities: one divided by the price.

2
Remove the margin

Each bookmaker’s probabilities are scaled to add up to 100%, which takes its margin out.

3
Average

The margin-free probabilities are averaged across the bookmakers. That is the fair probability.

4
Compare

Multiply the best price by the fair probability and subtract one. That is the edge.

Try it
Change the two numbers and watch the rest follow.
Implied by the price
38.5%
Fair price
2.50
Edge
+4.0%
Pays more than fair valueCounts as above fair value (edge of 0.4% or more)
The 0.4% cutoff

A price counts as above fair value when its edge is at least 0.4%. The counts in the date bar, the league list and the market headers are counts of these prices. The cutoff keeps tiny rounding differences between bookmakers from counting.

Below fair valueWithin the cutoffAbove fair value
< 0%0% – 0.4%≥ 0.4%
Edge compares, it doesn’t promise

A positive edge does not mean the outcome will happen or that you will profit. It can also mean one bookmaker is out of line with the rest, or that a price has gone stale.

Most prices are below fair value

Bookmakers build a margin into their prices, so most pay less than fair value. That is normal, and it is why only a minority are highlighted.

Very large edges need caution

They can reflect a stale price, a thin market with few bookmakers, or a long shot where the consensus is less reliable. Check the agreement and the bookmaker.

04

Agreement

Agreement says how far to trust a market’s fair value. It is not the chance of winning.

How many bookmakers

More bookmakers quoting the market means a sturdier consensus. It counts up to ten.

7 of 10 quoting
How closely they line up

When the bookmakers’ probabilities sit close together, agreement is high. When they spread out, it drops.

Close together
Spread out
How it is shown

A bar and a word, with a score out of 100 beside the bar.

Lowunder 70
55
Moderate70 to 79
74
High80 or more
92
05

The slip

The slip is where you put the bets you place with a bookmaker, to keep a history of them. It does not place bets.

1
Stake

What you put on the bet, in your currency (Account → Appearance).

2
Odds

The price of the leg when you added it. A multiple’s odds are its legs’ odds multiplied.

3
Multiple or singles

A multiple is one bet where every leg has to win. Singles are one bet per leg.

4
Potential return

Your stake times the odds: what comes back if the bet wins.

Your history is on your account page. Mark each bet won, lost or void when it ends; the net result only adds up the bets that have finished.

06

Live games

While a game is on, the page shows a live clock, the score and what happened. Here is how to read it.

Status
  • UpcomingHas not kicked off.
  • LiveHas kicked off and is not over yet.
  • FinishedMarked finished by a source, or long past kickoff: three hours for football.
The clock
  • 57'From the live scoreboard.
  • ~57'An estimate from the kickoff time, used when the scoreboard doesn’t cover the game. Breaks and stoppage time make it a guess.
Score markers
  • Goal
  • Own goal, listed under the team that benefits
  • Yellow card
  • Red card
  • Substitution: the player coming on, then the player going off
Where it comes from

Final results come from the same provider as the prices, through a scheduled job. The live clock, score, goals, cards, substitutions and match stats come from a public live scoreboard for the games it covers. That scoreboard is unofficial, doesn’t cover every league, and can be a couple of minutes behind. Without it, a page shows the last stored score.

Older games

You can look back up to two days. Played games show the last prices stored before kickoff, read-only: the closing edge. History only exists from when OddSense started storing prices.

07

Data and limits

Where prices come from

OddsPapi. For the main games of the next 24 hours we compare about 15 bookmakers: fair value is their average with each one’s margin taken out, and that is what the edge is measured against. The other games show a single sharp bookmaker’s price and its fair value, with nothing to compare it with, so no edge. It is a selection of bookmakers, so the best price shown is the best among those we compare, not necessarily the best in the whole market.

How fresh they are

Refreshed on a schedule, currently about once a day, so they can be hours old. A bookmaker may have moved or withdrawn a price since. Always check the price on the bookmaker’s site before you bet.

What is covered

Football for now; other sports are marked soon. Within football, every league the provider lists as in season is included. Match result, totals and handicap are shown, using the main line of each market: the one most bookmakers quote.

Why something is missing

Bookmakers usually post prices close to a game, so games further ahead may have none. A bookmaker may also not offer that market, and the data may not cover that league.

08

More questions

Is OddSense a bookmaker?

No. It doesn’t take bets and never holds your money. You place bets with the bookmaker yourself.

Does OddSense tell me who will win?

No. Nothing on the site predicts a result. Every figure compares one price with what the bookmakers, taken together, imply. A price with a high edge can still lose, and a price with a negative edge can still win.

What is REF?

REF stands for Relative Edge & Fairness. It is the name of OddSense’s pricing model, and that model is still in development.

Until it ships, every figure on the site, including the message REF shows on each game, is worked out from bookmaker prices alone. The message says so, and this page will say when that changes.

Is this betting advice?

No. The figures are estimates for information, not recommendations, and every bet can lose. If you bet, only stake what you can afford to lose, and use the deposit limit and helpline links in the footer if you need them.

What is closing edge?

For games already played, the prices shown are the last ones we stored before kickoff, and their edge is the closing edge. These are history, not offers, so they can’t be added to a slip.

Estimates for information, not predictions or betting advice. Every bet can lose.