REF’s picks

Estrela Amadora arrive from the top tier with a clear gulf in class over AD Fazendense, making the Over 3.5 goals line a compelling play. The visitors possess enough attacking depth to cover this total almost entirely on their own, even if rotation plays a part. However, cup ties can see lower-tier sides push hard for a famous goal, which adds defensive vulnerability and leaves room for a surprise reply.

1. 1Estrela's superior professional quality creates constant scoring opportunities against lower-league defending.
2. 2AD Fazendense's heavy recent defeats show they struggle badly when facing higher-calibre opponents.
3. 3Cup matches can occasionally stay tight if the favourites rotate heavily and struggle to find an early rhythm.

REF's own opinion, not a guarantee — nothing here is financial or betting advice, and the call is always yours.