REF’s picks

Everton look the better-equipped side here, and the -0.25 handicap offers the right level of cover for a tight contest where they should edge the result. They have shown consistent goal-scoring form lately, while Villa's road defensive record leaves them vulnerable to Everton's direct style.

1. 1Everton's recent form is solid with three wins in their last five, including a strong performance against Newcastle.
2. 2Villa's inconsistency away from home, specifically their heavy loss to Tottenham, suggests they can be broken down by organized pressure.
3. 3The potential for a draw remains a risk, which is why the -0.25 handicap is the preferred route over a straight moneyline win.

REF's own opinion, not a guarantee — nothing here is financial or betting advice, and the call is always yours.