REF’s picks

Backing over 3.5 goals makes sense given Real Madrid's heavily depleted defensive unit and Villarreal's attacking capabilities in transition. Both sides have shown a tendency for high-scoring affairs recently, though defensive injuries on the home side could leave them vulnerable at the back.

1. 1Real Madrid are missing several key defensive and midfield figures, creating obvious gaps for Villarreal to exploit.
2. 2Villarreal's recent matches have consistently featured plenty of goals at both ends of the pitch.
3. 3An early goal from a stretched Madrid side could force the visitors to open up, though a disciplined defensive block from the Yellow Submarine remains a risk to this high goal tally.

REF's own opinion, not a guarantee — nothing here is financial or betting advice, and the call is always yours.